Charles Mekwunye, Senior Advocate of Nigeria, told reporters in Abuja on Tuesday that the country's electoral commission cannot deliver credible polls under its current structure — a warning that rattled investors already nervous about governance risks in Africa's largest economy.
Mekwunye's assessment, delivered at a legal forum, strikes at the heart of investor confidence in Nigeria. Foreign portfolio investors have poured more than $12 billion into Nigerian bonds and equities this year, but many are watching upcoming elections closely. Credibility concerns around the Independent National Electoral Commission could accelerate capital outflows if unresolved.
INEC's Structural Problems, According to Mekwunye
The SAN outlined what he called fundamental weaknesses in how INEC operates. He pointed to outdated voter registration systems, insufficient independence from executive pressure, and inconsistent enforcement of electoral laws across Nigeria's 36 states.
"The architecture of the commission simply does not allow for elections that the international community would recognise as free and fair," Mekwunye said. "This is not about politics. This is about institutional design."
His comments come as INEC faces mounting criticism over logistics failures in recent off-cycle elections. In Rivers State, technical glitches during last month's governorship polls forced a court to invalidate results in several local government areas.
What This Means for Business Confidence
Nigeria's private sector has long argued that credible elections underpin economic stability. The Lagos Chamber of Commerce warned in a statement last week that electoral uncertainty could derail planned investments worth an estimated $3.7 billion across manufacturing and infrastructure sectors.
Several multinational companies have told local partners they are monitoring the situation closely. A senior executive at a European consumer goods firm, speaking on condition of anonymity, said his board had delayed a $200 million factory expansion pending "clarity on the electoral environment."
The Legal Framework Question
Mekwunye, who has represented clients in electoral disputes before Nigeria's courts, pointed to Section 158 of the 1999 Constitution as a source of institutional compromise. The clause grants the President powers to remove INEC commissioners, creating what critics call a structural conflict of interest.
The Nigerian Bar Association has previously called for amendments to strengthen INEC's independence, but parliamentary efforts have stalled since 2021. Bills to establish a more autonomous electoral commission remain stuck in committee.
"You cannot have an electoral umpire whose tenure depends on the same executive whose candidates it must judge," Mekwunye told the forum. "This is not theoretical. It has practical consequences for every result we see."
Market Reaction and Investor Concerns
The Nigerian naira slipped 0.4 percent against the dollar following Mekwunye's comments, reflecting sensitivity to political risk narratives. Bond yields inched higher as traders demanded a premium for governance uncertainty.
Analysts at Financial Africa Research noted that credibility questions around INEC have historically correlated with increased volatility in Nigerian assets. "When investors lose faith in the electoral process, they price in a risk premium that affects everything from sovereign debt costs to corporate borrowing rates," the firm wrote in a note to clients.
The Lagos Stock Exchange's main index fell 1.2 percent in early trading, with banking stocks — typically sensitive to political risk — accounting for most of the decline.
What Comes Next
INEC Chairman Yakubu Mahmud has not publicly responded to Mekwunye's comments. The commission released a statement noting that preparations for upcoming elections are "on track" and that technical systems have been upgraded since previous failures.
However, legal experts say the structural concerns Mekwunye raised cannot be addressed through operational improvements alone. Constitutional amendments would require two-thirds support in both chambers of the National Assembly and ratification by two-thirds of state assemblies — a high bar in Nigeria's divided political environment.
Opposition figures have seized on Mekwunye's comments to renew calls for electoral reform. Atiku Abubakar, a former presidential candidate, wrote on social media that the SAN's assessment "confirms what millions of Nigerians already know."
What to Watch
Markets will scrutinise any statements from the National Assembly about electoral reform legislation. The Senate Committee on INEC is scheduled to hold public hearings in October, where civil society groups plan to present testimony on institutional independence.
International observers, including the United States embassy in Abuja, have expressed interest in electoral integrity following recent regional elections where credible polling helped stabilise investor sentiment in neighbouring countries. The European Union has indicated it may condition election observation support on demonstrated INEC reforms.
For investors, the key question is whether structural concerns will translate into actual disruption. Nigerian courts have overturned controversial results in the past, providing some recourse, but the process takes years and creates prolonged uncertainty that businesses find costly.
The European Union has indicated it may condition election observation support on demonstrated INEC reforms.For investors, the key question is whether structural concerns will translate into actual disruption. It has practical consequences for every result we see."Market Reaction and Investor ConcernsThe Nigerian naira slipped 0.4 percent against the dollar following Mekwunye's comments, reflecting sensitivity to political risk narratives.
